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viernes, 23 de agosto de 2019
La ley electoral determina en gran medida el sistema de partidos PDF Imprimir E-Mail
Escrito por Francisco Ruiz. Profesor Univ. Castilla-La Mancha   

fruiz.jpgEn cuanto a su respeto de la proporcionalidad entre votos y escaños, la Ley Electoral española para el Congreso, se caracteriza porque:

1) Prima de forma significativa a los dos partidos grandes estatales (tendencia al bipartidismo).

2) Perjudica fuertemente a los demás partidos de ámbito estatal, medianos y pequeños (tendencia clara a eliminarlos del juego).

3) Respeta a los partidos locales (nacionalistas y/o regionalistas) que, a pesar de tener un peso pequeño a nivel estatal, no son perjudicados en el reparto de escaños.

 

 A lo largo de las nueve sucesivas elecciones generales celebradas entre 1977 y 2004, vistos estos efectos de la ley electoral, los ciudadanos, poco a poco, han ido votando cada vez más en función de ellos (voto útil y otros efectos). De esta manera, los dos partidos grandes han crecido progresivamente en peso en votos (desde el 63’8% en 1977 al 80’3% en 2004) y escaños (de 283 a 312), mientras que los locales han crecido ligeramente, con algunos altibajos en función de las circunstancias (8’1% en 1977, 12’3% en 1989, 11’2% en 2004), y los partidos estatales medianos y pequeños cada vez han sacado menos votos y escaños, cayendo desde el 26’6% y 42 escaños en 1977 hasta el exiguo 5’9% y 5 escaños de 2004.

  

Además, al adaptar los ciudadanos su voto en función de la ley electoral, las consecuencias de dicha ley se magnifican todavía más en una especie de efecto bola de nieve, que parece conducir de forma inexorable al extraparlamentarismo de todos los partidos estatales que no sean los dos grandes. Esto se comprueba al ver cómo el número de votos necesario para obtener escaño es cada vez peor para los partidos estatales pequeños y medianos. Mientras que en 1977 dichos partidos necesitaron 116 mil votos por cada escaño (2’0 veces más que los locales y 2’8 veces más que los grandes), en 2004 necesitaron 304000 votos (3’4 veces más que los locales y 4’6 veces más que los grandes.

 

Las tablas y gráficos siguientes detallan esta evolución en la manera de repartir el voto los ciudadanos, en una progresiva adaptación a las características de la ley electoral. Las categorías utilizadas para agrupar los partidos han sido las siguientes:

-         Dos Grandes: Los dos primeros partidos.

-         Estatales: Resto de partidos de ámbito estatal con, al menos, 20000 votos.

-         Locales: Partidos nacionalistas o regionalistas con, al menos, 20000 votos.

 

Se ha considerado como 20 mil votos una cifra razonable para contar los partidos sin complicar demasiado los cálculos. Además, el partido autónomo representado en el Congreso con menos votos fue CIC (Castellón) con 29834 en 1977.

 
Tabla 1. Porcentaje de Voto              
Categoría G2004 G2000 G1996 G1993 G1989 G1986 G1982 G1979 G1977
Dos Grandes 80,29 78,68 76,43 73,55 65,39 70,04 74,47 65,30 63,77
Estatales 5,87 6,40 10,96 12,75 20,95 17,73 15,46 23,81 26,63
Locales 11,24 12,15 10,79 11,88 12,27 11,26 8,93 9,46 8,07
 
Tabla 2a. Escaños (diputados)              
Categoría G2004 G2000 G1996 G1993 G1989 G1986 G1982 G1979 G1977
Dos Grandes 312 308 297 300 282 289 309 289 283
Estatales 5 8 21 18 31 26 17 34 42
Locales 33 34 32 32 37 35 24 27 25
                   
Tabla 2b. Porcentaje de escaños              
Categoría G2004 G2000 G1996 G1993 G1989 G1986 G1982 G1979 G1977
Dos Grandes 89,14 88,00 84,86 85,71 80,57 82,57 88,29 82,57 80,86
Estatales 1,43 2,29 6,00 5,14 8,86 7,43 4,86 9,71 12,00
Locales 9,43 9,71 9,14 9,14 10,57 10,00 6,86 7,71 7,14

 
Tabla 3a. Votos (miles)              
Categoría G2004 G2000 G1996 G1993 G1989 G1986 G1982 G1979 G1977
Dos Grandes 20789 18240 19142 17352 13402 14149 15675 11769 11682
Estatales 1521 1484 2746 3008 4293 3582 3255 4292 4879
Locales 2911 2817 2703 2802 2515 2274 1880 1705 1479
                   
Tabla 3b. Votos por escaño (miles)            
Categoría G2004 G2000 G1996 G1993 G1989 G1986 G1982 G1979 G1977
Dos Grandes 66,6 59,2 64,5 57,8 47,5 49,0 50,7 40,7 41,3
Estatales 304,2 185,5 130,8 167,1 138,5 137,8 191,5 126,2 116,2
Locales 88,2 82,8 84,5 87,6 68,0 65,0 78,3 63,2 59,2
 

Como conclusión, podemos afirmar que, debido a la ley electoral en vigor desde 1977, el sistema de partidos español está avocado a ser bipartidista anómalo. Bipartidista porque los dos grandes partidos estatales que se turnan en el poder tienen alrededor del 90% de los escaños; y anómalo porque, al contrario de los demás países en los cuales el papel de bisagra lo desempeñan partidos estatales medianos, aquí dicho papel lo desempeñan una serie de partidos locales (nacionalistas y regionalistas) que aúnan en torno al 10% de los votos y escaños.

Esta situación sólo se puede cambiar modificando la ley electoral en alguna de las tres direcciones posibles siguientes:

a)      Dar algún tipo de prima al ganador para asegurarle la mayoría absoluta de escaños, de forma que no hagan falta apoyos de otros partidos (bisagra).

b)      Aplicar algún mecanismo que haga que los partidos locales reciban un trato similar al recibido por los partidos estatales medianos y pequeños.

c)      Mejorar la proporcionalidad global del sistema de forma que los partidos estatales medianos puedan estar representados de forma adecuada para jugar el papel de bisagras.

 

La opción a) supondría romper con el principio de proporcionalidad consagrado en la constitución.

La opción b) tiene un gran inconveniente político debido a la estructura territorial de España. Además, es muy difícil idear una manera adecuada  para llevarla a cabo ya que los partidos locales con escaños los consiguen porque tienen una implantación importante en una parte del territorio. Una posible solución sería poner un porcentaje estatal mínimo para poder entrar en el reparto de escaños, pero seguramente esto llevaría a que grupos de partidos locales de diversos territorios se aliasen para superar dicho mínimo. Además, ¿cómo se justificaría democráticamente una situación en que más del 50% de los votantes de una provincia se quedasen sin representación en el congreso porque los partidos ganadores en dicha provincia no estuvieran representados?.

La opción c) implica que los dos grandes renuncien a una parte del beneficio que reciben de la actual ley para permitir y facilitar la existencia de partidos estatales que puedan hacer de bisagras. Esto parece difícil de conseguir vista la historia reciente, pero quizás ambos partidos acaben llegando a la conclusión de que es preferible para ellos (y no solo para la gobernabilidad de España) que sumen el 80% de los escaños, pero tengan uno o varios partidos estatales con los que puedan pactar sin problemas, que tener el 90% de los escaños pero tener que pactar con una lista de pequeños partidos locales con visiones muchas veces enfocadas exclusivamente en lo local.

Un problema más fácil de resolver es cómo modificar la ley electoral, dentro de los márgenes permitidos por la Constitución, para mejorar dicha proporcionalidad. En este artículo sólo cabe indicar que es posible y factible de hacer, incluso manteniendo la provincia como circunscripción.

 

Francisco Ruiz, profesor titular, Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha Esta dirección de correo electrónico está protegida contra los robots de spam, necesita tener Javascript activado para poder verla  
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hola profesor ruiz: y que problema hay con la consabida: 1 hombre - 1 voto. De acuerdo perjudica a las minorias, pero a dia de hoy hay unas mayorias perjudicadas. Creo que lo lógico si somos un único estado es que mi voto tenga el mismo peso independientemente de dónde voto, ¿acaso no es injusto que un mismo votante de un mismo partido tenga más influencia según la provincia dónde vote?
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