EL VOTO EUROPEO Y LAS GENERALES

El que no se consuela es porque no quiere. Ningún partido político se encuentra plenamente satisfecho con los resultados electorales de las elecciones europeas pero todos intentan -intentamos- leer las cifras arrojadas por las urnas de la forma más propicia para sus -nuestros- intereses estratégicos. erkoreka_9.jpg

Una de las técnicas más perversas de los que acostumbran a examinar el comportamiento electoral de los ciudadanos con el propósito de indagar los movimientos de fondo que se ocultan tras ellos, es la de la proyección. O si se prefiere, extrapolación. Se trata de una técnica que consiste en tomar como referencia los resultados de una concreta cita electoral para ensayar su aplicación hipotética a una convocatoria distinta, con el fin de comprobar cómo quedaría compuesta una determinada cámara representativa si al elegir a sus miembros se reprodujese escrupulosamente la voluntad popular expresada para la integración de otra. Es una pequeña trampa que todos criticamos, pero que ninguno de nosotros renuncia a hacer cuando le interesa.

Como soy un parlamentario cuya función representativa se desarrolla en el Congreso de los Diputados, me parece interesante examinar el modo en el que los resultados de las elecciones europeas podrían alterar la composición de la cámara en la que trabajo, desde el punto de vista del tópico, tan difundido como falaz, de que el sistema electoral vigente privilegia a los partidos nacionalistas, favoreciendo su sobrerrepresentación. A tal efecto, extrapolaré los resultados de estas últimas elecciones, poniéndome en la hipótesis de que no son producto de unas elecciones europeas, sino de unas elecciones generales.

Es conocida la tesis de que lo que en España se conoce como partidos nacionalistas -que siempre son los periféricos, nunca los que exaltan la nación española- gozan, en el Congreso, de una presencia desproporcionada que les permite influir sobre la política general en una medida superior a la que podrían hacerlo si se tomase en cuenta, estrictamente, su peso electoral real. Y desde esta constatación -infundada, insisto, pero muy difundida- se extrae la -interesada- conclusión de que habría de reformarse el sistema electoral, con el fin de asegurar que la composición de la cámara se correspondiese lo más puntualmente posible con la voluntad de los ciudadanos expresada en las urnas.

La panacea que habría de poner fin a estas disfunciones del sistema electoral, sería -según la reiterada argumentación de los más críticos-, la circunscripción única: Cada ciudadano vale un voto, en el marco de un único espacio electoral, sin divisiones ni demarcaciones.

En anteriores ocasiones, he defendido que el desfase que efectivamente existe entre la fuerza electoral real de cada formación política y su representación en el Congreso de los Diputados, no favorece -como se pretende- a los partidos nacionalistas, sino a los grandes partidos estatales, el PSOE y el PP. Es cierto que IU -y también, ahora, UPD; aunque éste es, todavía, un fenómeno muy reciente sobre el que no resulta fácil hacer generalizaciones- tienen menos escaños de los que en un cálculo de estricta proporcionalidad habrían de corresponderles. Pero no aciertan quienes apuntan hacia los partidos nacionalistas a la hora de identificar a los principales beneficiarios de ese desfase. Los que "hacen caja" a costa de estas formaciones son, fundamentalmente, el PSOE y el PP.

Es más que discutible que la circunscripción única sea la idónea -e incluso la más coherente- para organizar, desde el punto de vista territorial, las elecciones generales de un Estado compuesto que a veces se reivindica, con evidente exageración, como el más descentralizado del planeta. Sería, sencillamente, una incoherencia. Sin embargo, en el Estado español, las elecciones europeas se llevan a cabo en circunscripción única, algo que no sucede ni en la jacobina Francia, que está considerada como la quintaesencia del centralismo. Y así ocurrió con los comicios del 7 de junio: Circunscripción única.

¿Puede afirmarse -como algunos se empeñan en hacerlo- que la extrapolación de sus resultados a unas hipotéticas elecciones generales haría desaparecer a los diputados nacionalistas del hemiciclo del Congreso o supondrían una reducción significativa de su peso en la cámara?

Veámoslo.

Si conformásemos el Congreso de los Diputados con arreglo a los resultados obtenidos el domingo -pero aplicando el sistema electoral vigente- se producirían los siguientes cambios:

CiU ganaría 3 escaños

PNV quedaría igual.

ERC ganaría 1 escaño.

Coalición Canaria quedaría igual.

BNG perdería los dos escaños que actualmente dispone.

Na-Bai perdería su único escaño.

Iniciativa Internacionalista: Obtendría 2 escaños.

En conjunto, los partidos nacionalistas pasaríamos de 24 escaños a 27.

Por el contrario, los presuntos grandes desfavorecidos del sistema actual, IU y UpyD, que son los que más insisten en la necesidad de reformar el sistema electoral para implantar uno más "justo" y "proporcional"- apenas experimentarían una mejoría perceptible en su representación.

IU pasaría de 2 a 3 escaños.

UPyD pasaría de 1 a 2 escaños.

¿Quienes saldrían perdiendo con el nuevo reparto? Está claro. El PSOE y el PP, que perderían los 3 diputados que gana el bloque nacionalista y los 2 escaños en los que IU y UPyD mejoran su representación.

Repitamos ahora el ensayo, pero haciendo valer la circunscripción única; es decir, proyectando sobre los 350 escaños que integran el Congreso, los porcentajes obtenidos por cada una de las candidaturas que han obtenido representación en las elecciones de anteayer. El resultado sería el siguiente:

PP obtendría 148 escaños

PSOE, 135 escaños

Coalición por Europa (CiU, PNV y CC), 18 escaños

IU, 13 escaños

UPyD, 10 escaños

Europa de los Pueblos (ERC, BNG, Aralar, EA) 9 escaños

Iniciativa Internacionalista, 4 escaños.

Como se ve, IU y UPyD reforzarían su representación -que subiría de 5 a 23 escaños- pero también lo haría el bloque integrado por los partidos nacionalistas, que llegaría hasta los 31 diputados.

Los que perderían, claramente, son el PSOE y el PP

Ya ven que todo es relativo y que, no por insistir en ellos, ganan los tópicos en veracidad.

Josu Erkoreka

Portavoz del Grupo Vasco EAJ-PNV en el Congreso

(Artículo también publicado en su página personal)

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